Nigeria generated an estimated N20.22 trillion from crude oil exports between January and May 2026, representing a 29.5 per cent increase over the corresponding period of 2025, despite exporting fewer barrels during the period.
An analysis of export data shows that the country earned approximately $14.66 billion from crude oil exports in the first five months of the year, compared with $11.32 billion recorded during the same period in 2025. Using an exchange rate of N1,380/$, the export earnings translate to about N20.22 trillion, up from N15.62 trillion a year earlier.
The increase in earnings was largely driven by stronger international crude oil prices, which offset the impact of declining export volumes.
Between January and May 2026, Nigeria exported an estimated 148.9 million barrels of crude oil, down from approximately 154 million barrels during the corresponding period in 2025. This represents a decline of 5.1 million barrels, or 3.3 per cent year-on-year.
Similarly, average daily crude oil exports fell from 1.02 million barrels per day in the first five months of 2025 to 984,000 barrels per day over the same period this year, reflecting a 3.5 per cent decrease.
The improved export revenue comes against the backdrop of heightened global oil prices, particularly during March, April and May, when geopolitical tensions, including the conflict involving the United States and Iran, supported higher crude benchmarks.
While export earnings strengthened, domestic crude supply to local refineries also improved during the review period. Deliveries to domestic refiners rose from 8.83 million barrels in January and 8.86 million barrels in February to 11.49 million barrels in March, before reaching a peak in April and moderating slightly in May.
Despite the increase in domestic allocations, concerns remain over compliance with Nigeria’s Domestic Crude Supply Obligation under the Petroleum Industry Act. Local refiners have continued to argue that producers prioritise export markets because of the higher revenues generated from international crude sales.
The latest figures show Nigeria’s continued dependence on crude oil exports for foreign exchange earnings, while highlighting the influence of international oil prices on government revenue, even when production and export volumes remain under pressure.
